[Note: Normally, I write articles as if written on the day of the event. Because much of this post focuses on subsequent developments, I am writing it taking into account those developments]

This past Saturday (January 13, 2024), I attended the March4Gaza in Washington, D.C. The event largely followed the same format utilized by the Chicago Palestinian Community for their post-October 7th marches and rallies.

With a 1:00 PM start-time, a small smattering of people were already in position when I arrived at 10:30 AM. Over the course of the next 2.5 hours, many more streamed into Freedom Plaza, with large numbers continuing to arrive during the formal program that preceded the march to the White House. Once the chants led by people at the podium and the speeches ended, the demonstrators gathered on 14th Street behind banners positioned close to the intersection of 14th and F Streets, where they would begin their march to the White House.

Staging. To be blunt, the event was poorly staged, particularly from a visual standpoint. The portable stage was too small and too low to the ground. Unless standing in the front of the media risers, the demonstrators could not see the speakers. I noticed several large-screen monitors off to the sides, but I suspect most of those standing in the plaza didn’t see them.

While there was a sound system, I did not hear most of the speeches as I circulated on the periphery of the plaza. There may have been sound, but with the orators out of my sight, their words become background noise. When I could hear the words, they were muffled. Observing the crowd toward the back of the plaza, I suspect that was true for many demonstrators. By and large, the program became a delay tactic, permitting the crowd to grow before the march began.

The organizers provided a set of risers for the media several ‘rows’ from the stage , but the person charged with handling the media asked that only those with large video rigs use the risers, leaving me with a choice: Stand in the front row photographing the speakers, or circulate on plaza’s periphery, capturing images of the goings on. I chose the latter. While waiting for the march to begin, another photographer confirmed that I had made the right choice, pointing out that the staging produced a static, undifferentiated blob. At a minimum, the organizers should have created a ‘pit’ area in front of the stage where photographers could have easily captured images of the speakers.

As for the march, it too was poorly staged. The media stood toward the top of an incline leading at the intersection of 14th Street and F Street, looking at the marchers massing on the incline below. Based on the time stamps from my images, I stood there for well over an hour after those holding the lead banners were in position. Given the windchill, members of the media quickly grew annoyed. Moreover, the delay and chill sapped the marchers of their energy and passion. Perhaps of greater significance, the delay meant darkness was beginning its descent when the marchers arrived at the White House, negatively impacting the imagery.

Speaking of the White House, it is a lousy place to end a large demonstration. I understand the symbolism associated with “Genocide Joe’s” residence, but the area in front of the White House is visually problematic when occupied by a hoard of demonstrators. There is no elevated position to capture images from, so by and large, the resulting imagery just shows people milling about. Capitol Hill or the Lincoln Memorial are far more photogenic locations.

Crowd Size. I was speaking with two other photographers while we waited for the march to the White House to begin. We put the number in attendance at somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000 people. Our consensus view was that the number was probably closer to 10,000, but I noted that we could only see the people lined up on 14th Street. There presumably were still large numbers of people in the plaza who would undoubtedly stream into the street once the marchers already in position moved forward.

Naturally, I was surprised Saturday night when I received a press release from Ismail Allison, the National Communications Manager for the Council on American Islamic Relations, carrying the headline, “CAIR Commends 400,000+Marchers for Historic Turnout at March on Washington for Gaza.” I initially thought I had misread the '“400,000+” number. Once I realized that I hadn’t, I thought it might be a typo—one too many zeroes.

At 400,000, the March4Gaza would have been larger than the March for Jobs and Freedom (August 28, 1963—250,000); the March on Washington for Peace in Vietnam (November 27, 1965—250,000); the Moratorium to End the War in Vietnam (October 15, 1969—200,000); the Kent State/ Cambodian Incursion Protest (May 9, 1970—100,000); the March for the Equal Rights Amendment (July 9, 1978—100,000); the Anti-Nuclear March (May 6, 1979—125,000); the Solidarity Day March (September 19, 1981—100,000); Freedom Sunday for Soviet Jews (December 6, 1987—250,000); the Million Man March (October 16, 1995—U.S. Park Police put the estimated number at 400,000 while a Boston University study placed it at 837,000); and the March for Our Lives (March 24, 2018—202,796). Many of these and other larger marches received extensive national television coverage.

Given the magnitude of the disparity between my estimate and CAIR’s number, I contacted CAIR on Monday. Mr. Allison sent me a two-sentence response, stating:

The 400,000 was presented by AMP and ANSWER Coalition, you can contact them for more information. I think they are basing it on the number of people who were bused in.

Taking his suggestion, I contacted AMP—American Muslims for Palestine on Monday. I tried calling, but no one answered the phone. I then completed a form submission that included my question. I subsequently received a “Message Could Not Be Delivered” response.

On Tuesday, I tracked down an e-mail address for AMP, and again requested information about the 400,000+ number. I also tried calling again. Once again, no one answered the phone after 20+ rings; the call never rolled over to voice mail. I still have not received a response to my email. As of Tuesday, CAIR had added an entry to Wikipedia repeating the 400,000+ number. [See my subsequent reference to the Wikipedia entry for subsequent developments].

To ascertain whether the number was a creditable estimate:

• I copied an aerial image that CAIR referenced in its Saturday press release. I opened it in Photoshop; converted it from its 72 PPI resolution to 150 PPI; overlayed a grid on top of the image; identified one box that was densely populated with people; counted the number of people in the box, and then multiplied that number by the number of equally-sized boxes showing people. Given that the image had pixelated, I doubled the resulting number, arriving at just over 70,000 demonstrators.

  My calculation assumes an equal number of people in each box despite the following facts: (i) in some boxes, I could see pavement rather than people; (ii) other boxes contained tents and risers; and (iii) others contained large out-stretched Palestinian banners extending over multiple boxes.

  I admittedly had difficulty counting people, which is why I doubled the number. Two people in dark coats might read as one person, and a four-year old child might not be visible if standing close to her mother or father.

• I reviewed my photographs from March for Our Lives (March 24, 2018). During the march, I had access to the now-closed Newseum’s terrace, which permitted me to capture images of the crowd, which stretched along Pennsylvania Avenue from 6th Street to at least 12th Street. Significant stretches of the street were far more densely populated than Freedom Plaza, which extends from 13th Street to 14th Street.

  March for Our Lives relied on a count provided by Digital Design & Imaging Services, a company that uses proprietary methods for calculating crowd size using aerial photographs. Digital Design concluded that the peak crowd size was 202,796 people, with a margin of error of 15%--I have seen estimates that the crowd size exceeded 800,000, but I am inclined to rely on Digital Design’s count given the company’s estimation techniques. There is no public evidence that the organizers of Saturday’s March4Gaza used Digital Design’s services or a similar one from another vendor.

• I reviewed press reports. The Guardian’s article stated, “Thousands of marchers descended on Washington, D.C.”; NBC Washington News 4’s article reported, “Thousands of demonstrators converged opposite the White House”; NPR’s article stated, “Thousands of demonstrators rallied and marched in Washington, D.C.”; the Associated Press’ stated, “Thousands of demonstrators converged opposite the White House”; the Washington Post’s article reported, “Thousands of protesters gathered in downtown D.C. Saturday afternoon at a rally”; and USA Today reported “Thousands of people gathered in the nation’s capital Saturday afternoon.” In newspaper speak, rough estimates are presented as being in ‘the thousands,’ ‘the tens of thousands,’ or ‘the hundreds of thousands.’ The fact that none of these articles goes beyond “thousands” suggests that a 20,000- or 40,000-person estimate is a charitable one, but that an estimate in the hundreds of thousands is a gross exaggeration.

• I searched the New York Times’ and the Wall Street Journal’s websites to determine whether either national newspaper had covered or referenced the demonstration. Given that both newspapers have Washington, D.C. bureaus, they would most likely have sent reporters to Freedom Plaza or the White House once reports filtered back that hundreds of thousands of people had gathered within blocks of the White House, let alone outside of it. Neither paper referenced the demonstration.

• I attempted to calculate how many people would fit into the area in front of the White House. One acre constitutes 43,560 square feet, which represents an area 660 feet by 66 feet. Using Google maps, I calculated the distance between 15th and 17th Streets as .4 of a mile or 2112 feet—that is an admittedly an overestimate, but I worked within the limits imposed by Google Maps. In terms of acreage, the accessible area on Pennsylvania extending somewhere into Lafayette Park would constitute 3.2 acres.

  Based on an estimate of one person per square foot, 43,560 people would fill one acre—meaning that roughly 140,000 people would fill the space between 15th and 17th Streets based on my admittedly back-of-the-envelope calculation, but that number is greatly inflated for a number of reasons. First, the portion of the block running from the east end of the White House and 14th Street was large empty, except for people leaving the demonstration.

  Second, there were riot fences running along Pennsylvania Avenue, so a significant portion of the street in front of the White House’s permanent fencing was inaccessible. Moreover, the Secret Service has positioned square pens comprised of bicycle racks adjacent to Lafayette Park, which further reduces the space that could be occupied by demonstrators.

  Third, a portion of Pennsylvania Avenue between 15th and 15th Streets is lined by buildings (e.g. Blair House) rather than parkland.

  I am admittedly not good at visually judging distances, but 66 feet from the riot fencing to somewhere inside of Lafayette Park strikes me as a good guess as to the area included in the 3.2 acres. Except for the sidewalk on the southside of Lafayette Park, the park was not densely populated—large swaths of it were sparsely populated. Based on these highly simplified and rough calculations, I am comfortable concluding that there were nowhere near 140,000 people standing in front of the White House, let alone 400,000.

• Based on Mr. Allison’s suggestion that the headcount was based on the people bused, I attempted to calculate the number of buses that would be necessary to transport 400,000 people.

  The Bus Foundation reports that a Greyhound-style bus holds somewhere around 45 people. To be conservative, I doubled that number, which means 4,500 buses would have been necessary to transport 400,000 people. Given that the Bus Foundation reports that a Greyhound-style bus is 39.4 feet long, the parked buses would have occupied 33.58 miles of roadway if parked bumper to bumper. I certainly didn’t walk around all of Washington, D.C., but over the course of the day, I saw very few buses.

  I assume the buses were parked along the National Mall. The distance between the Capitol and the Lincoln Memorial is 2.7 miles according to Google Maps, which translates into 10.6 miles of parking space (the westbound and eastbound streets lining the mall; with both sides of the street used for parking), assuming no cross streets or other parked cars.

  At rallies in Chicago, speakers have noted that Chicago has the largest Palestinian and Muslim populations in the country. Several weeks ago, I was told by someone stationed at a booth advertising the demonstration at the annual MAS-ICNA Convention that the Chicago organizers had booked 12 buses for the trip. During the intervening period, that number could have grown, but the relationship between 12 and 4,500 buses raises serious questions about the claim that 400,000 demonstrators came by bus given the size of Chicago’s Palestinian Community relative to the communities in other cities.

• I reviewed the Washington Post article published two days prior to the demonstration reporting, “Organizers anticipate that upward of 25,000 people will attend the event at Freedom Plaza, according to a permit issued by the National Park Service late Thursday.” Did 375,000 additional demonstrators materialize during the intervening two days? If all 375,000 arrived by bus, how did the organizers find thousands of additional buses and drivers on two-day’s notice?

  Notably, the organizers maintained a website identifying cities where demonstrators could book a seat on a bus, so when they submitted the application, the organizers must have been aware of the number of individuals who had booked seats. Presumably that total factors into the estimated number included in the application. I examined the links on the website to each city that was sending busloads of people. Unfortunately, some of the links still showed the number of available buses, but many of the links took me too webpages that no longer showed the number of buses coming from a particular city.

After three days, AMP still has not responded to my email. I would think AMP would welcome the opportunity to explain their methodology, particularly when being asked by someone who they issued media credentials to.

To summarize, I view the 400,000+ number as highly fanciful thinking, but the pertinent question remains: Why does an accurate headcount matter? First, the historical record should be as accurate as possible. Second, and of far greater importance, the pro-Palestinian demonstrations are rooted in part on the death counts reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. The speakers refer to the current death count; the signage often references the death counts; and the frequent references to “genocide” are dependent on high and exponentially increasing death counts. Consequently, why should anyone believe the death counts if the organizers of the March4Gaza (and similar demonstrations) are willing to play fast and loose with the headcount? Is the Ministry also playing fast and loose with their count?

As an aside, I have previously examined whether the Ministry’s death count is accurate. Statistics from prior conflicts between Hamas and the Israelis appear to be accurate, so there is little reason to doubt the Ministry’s current statistics, but will the average consumer of those statistics take the time to assess their veracity?

Late Wednesday evening, I once again reviewed the Wikipedia entry for the largest marches in Washington, D.C. It now stated, “January 13 - March on Washington for Gaza - As part of a Global Day of protest, an estimated tens of thousands of people marched in Washington in support of Palestine on the eve of 100 days of the Israel-Gaza war. CAIR and other groups claimed over 400000 marched.” Wikipedia reports that the page was lasted edited on January 17, 2024, at 01:00 (UTC). The obvious questions: Who made the change and why? Just to be clear; it wasn’t me.

CAIR should take one of two actions. If the number was made up, it should send an email to everyone who received the original email that includes a retraction and an apology. If CAIR believes it has support for the number, it should issue a second press release documenting that support and the methodology used to produce the number.

The Demonstrators. The demonstrators consisted of two distinct groups. The first one includes people of Palestinian and Middle Eastern heritage. For those of Palestinian heritage, the events unfolding in Gaza are deeply personal. At least two of the speakers that I did hear referenced dead family members. There have been similar references at the many rallies I have attended.

As I was waiting for the march to the White House to begin, I saw what looked like a family standing just to the side of one of the lead banners. Families have played a significant role in the pro-Palestinian demonstrations, so I wanted to capture this family’s image. Unfortunately, I did not focus on the sign that the apparent father was holding. It contained a grid filled with photographs of people, with a caption reading, “Martyrs of Al-Ashi Family.” Had I read the caption, I would have asked the gentlemen whether those were his family members, although I believe it is a safe to assume that they were. “Personal” just begins to describe the nature of the loss.

The other major group represented in the crowd were Progressives and members of the far left, including some who designate themselves as socialists and revolutionaries. Many of these demonstrators undoubtedly deplore the loss of life, which for many is deeply felt and genuine. Yet, I sometimes wonder whether the Palestinian cause is subsumed in a larger agenda. In Chicago, the organizers have played into that larger agenda, pointing out that aid to Israel could be used for affordable housing, medical care, and student loan cancellation—all issues that appear to Progressives, particularly college students. My recurring question: Do the organizers really care about those issues, or would those concerns fall by the wayside if the issues surrounding Gaza were settled to their satisfaction? Do those issues represent a means to build a coalition that extends far beyond Palestinian Americans?

Similar signage was present Saturday, with the International Youth and Students for Social Equity asserting that Biden demands $105 billion for war, but “With that money we can: house every homeless person for $20 billion; feed hungry people globally for $23 billon; and forgive $30K in student loans for 2 million people for $60B.” The cynic in me wonders whether these groups are more interested social programs, viewing the Palestinian cause as a means to a larger end. There seems to be a symbiotic relationship between the two constituencies.

Early on, I encountered a small group of Hassidic Jews who support the Palestinians. I had encountered similar demonstrators before during a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Brooklyn and at the March for Israel in early November on the National Mall. There were also other Jewish people present carrying signs in support of the Palestinians.

The Kids. As with other pro-Palestinian demonstrations, parents brought their children to the March4Gaza. The Israelis could learn an important lesson by taking the time to observe the children at these demonstrations. Outwardly, the kids are well-dressed, appear to be well fed and healthy, and are enthusiastic participants.

The salient fact is their imitative nature. The kids proudly carry signs, often shout all the words to the chants, assist in carrying the lead banners, participate in impromptu prayer sessions, and are thrilled to have someone take their picture. I have seen kids come to demonstrations with their faces painted. Others even grab the bullhorns, wanting to lead the chants just like their fathers and mothers.

The parents and grandparents are understandably proud that their kids and grandkids are taking an active and enthusiastic role in the demonstrations and marches. It is a sign that the parents have successfully taught their children about their Palestinian heritage and the plight of the Palestinian people.

While the children of Gaza are not well off—many are starving, homeless, and hungry—they share something in common with their American counterparts. News reports indicate that they are also imitative. While Israel claims that its military campaign will eliminate Hamas, in fact, Israel is creating the next generation of Hamas fighters and resistance leaders. The kids in Gaza aren’t imitating adults participating in demonstrations, but instead are planning to follow in the footsteps of adults who are fighting the Israelis.

At every pro-Palestinian demonstration I have attended, I leave with this same thought: What I am witnessing is a proxy for what is happening in Gaza, but what is happening in Gaza has far deadly consequences. Without taking sides, I believe the Israelis would be better served if they ended their military campaign.

Speakers. According to the Washington Post article referenced earlier, more than 20 people were scheduled to speak—far too many, but that is usually the case at large demonstrations. I would have enjoyed hearing Cornel West, an independent candidate for president, as well as Jill Stein, the Green Party’s presidential candidate, but as I noted earlier, I had to make a choice between being in eyesight of the speakers and capturing images of people engaged in various activities.

The New Chant. To my ears, the chants are now uninteresting because the use of particular chants has become highly repetitive. How many times can I listen to the same song or chant? Maybe that is why the chant callers decided today to spice up the soundtrack with a new chant. I am not sure I recall the exact phrasing, but the chant went something like this: “Irony, Irony, Israel just committed genocide like Nazi Germany.” Provocative, to say the least. I did love the use of the word “Irony,” which demonstrated a level of sophistication, particularly when rhymed with Germany. I am still trying to work out whether it is anti-Semitic, or just in bad taste.

Personal Interactions. I had several nice interactions during the day. While waiting for the march to begin, I spoke at length with two photographers about demonstrations, cameras, and careers. One was a junior attending Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He had somehow convinced the University to allow him to intern as a photojournalist working Capitol Hill—good for him. Earlier in the day, he had been on the White House grounds photographing President Biden’s departure for Camp David. He showed me some great images from the event.

The other photographer was slightly older. He was a freelancer who lives just south of San Francisco. I particularly enjoyed his story about another pro-Palestinian demonstration outside the White House in October or November of 2023. When things turned ugly, he found an escape route by climbing a tree. I am not that agile.

While walking backwards in front of the lead banner, someone tapped me on the shoulder, asking me “What are you doing here? Are you following us.” The gentlemen is one of the organizers behind the pro-Palestinian demonstrations. I frequently encounter him leading the marches in Chicago. We repeatedly crossed paths on the way to the White House. At one point, I said that I assumed he took the bus, then saying, “I don’t envy you.” He agreed. His group left Chicago Friday night, arrived Saturday morning, marched, and then left Saturday night for an all-night ride back to Chicago.

I also spoke with one D.C. motorcycle cop, who was quite friendly. I asked him where the bicycle cops were? He said they were present, but I never saw any. For that matter, given the demonstration’s presence in the Nation’s Capital, I was surprised by the light police presence, particularly because the march ended at the White House. Undoubtedly, riot police and other police assets were stationed nearby, but out of sight.

Reported Violence. Sometime Saturday night or Sunday morning I read a FoxNews article reporting that that the riot fencing outside the White House had been damaged, demonstrators had assaulted the police, and the Secret Service had to relocate members of the White House staff due to concerns for their safety. I subsequently read other news reports that largely minimized these incidents.

When I headed back to my hotel at 5:30 PM, the demonstration was breaking up. Up until that point, the demonstration had been orderly and peaceful, even when the demonstrators passed a Starbucks store (police stood in front of the store’s windows and its entrance).

I left the demonstration somewhat hesitantly because I assumed if there was going to an incident, it would be the dead enders (those who mingle about after most demonstrators are long gone) who instituted it. Yet, I had now been on the street for 7.5 hours, often with 3 cameras hanging off my neck, so I just wanted to have dinner. In retrospect, I don’t have regrets about missing what really was just street theater, particularly because I caught a knife-wielding man being detained by the police earlier in the day.

As the demonstrators marched north on 14th Street, a man in an orange parka stopped in front of the lead banner, and then knelt down, impeding the marchers’ forward progress. The marshals quickly removed him, but when standing by himself further north on 14th Street, he produced a knife and started screaming. The marshals and the police quickly disarmed him—the marshals should be commended for their courage because they acted before the police took control. The police then moved him to the side, where they appeared to search him. I don’t know whether he was arrested, but I suspect not.

The man may have been homeless and/or he may have had mental health issues. His body language led me to believe that he has had prior contact with the police. He went out of his way avoid any resistance as the police searched him. In fact, he was eerily cooperative.

Aside for that single man, I saw no one engaging in inappropriate conduct. In fact, the demonstrators projected a festive vibe.

Conclusions. I am glad that I attended the demonstration, but it will be an event that is quickly forgotten. No new ground was covered. For a ‘national’ demonstration, it was not well-attended, but that is probably because January is not a great month for demonstrations.

[Click on an Image to Enlarge it]

Copyright 2024, Jack B. Siegel. All Rights Reserved. Do Not Alter, Copy, Display, Distribute, Download, Duplicate, or Reproduce Without the Prior Written Consent of the Copyright Holder.